Diversified GEM Dual Momentum

Details

The Diversified GEM Dual Momentum strategy was developed by the team at Newfound Research and profiled in their case study: Fragility Case Study: GEM Dual Momentum.

It uses GEM Dual Momentum but divides the portfolio into seven different slices, each following their own model with different look-back periods.

The goal is to reduce luck and risk that is involved by having only one 12-month look-back period with GEM Dual Momentum.

Average Asset Allocation & Recommended ETFs

Weight
Ticker
ETF Name
Sector
43%
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
Equity, U.S., Large Cap
30%
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Bond, U.S., All-Term
27%
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
Equity, Inter. Developed, Large Cap

Performance Metrics

All Data
Annual Return
13.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.76
10 Year Annual Return
6.3%
Volatility (annualized)
11.5%
Max Drawdown
-19.8%
Positive Periods
68.3%
Dot Com Annual Return
2.7%
Great Financial Crisis Return
8.6%
Trade Frequency
Monthly
Ulcer Performance Index
1.7

Strategy Rules

This strategy trades once per month.

  1. Split the portfolio into 7 equal slices.
  2. On the last trading day of the month, calculate the total return for each of the assets above for the last 6-months, 7-months, 8-months…continuing for each month until reaching the prior 12-months.
  3. For each of the 7 look-back periods, determine if the total return of SPY > AGG.
    • If SPY > AGG, allocate that percentage of the portfolio to the greater of SPY or EFA.
    • If SPY < AGG, allocate that percentage of the portfolio to AGG.
  4. Hold all positions until the last trading day of the next month.

How to Invest in the Diversified GEM Dual Momentum Portfolio

M1 Finance is the recommended platform to invest in this portfolio.  Find out why.

Diversified GEM Dual Momentum Rolling Returns

Low
Average
High
1-Year
-17.5%
14.2%
98.0%
3-Year
-0.3%
13.7%
55.0%
5-Year
1.3%
13.8%
43.3%
10-Year
4.1%
14.3%
26.9%

Charts

Portfolio vs. 60/40 vs. S&P 500

All Data
Portfolio
60/40
S&P 500
Annual Return
13.2%
9.3%
10.3%
10Y Annual Return
6.3%
7.9%
12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.76
0.51
0.43
Max Drawdown
-19.8%
-29.7%
-50.97%
Volatility (annualized)
11.5%
9.9%
15.4%
Dot Com Annual Return
2.7%
-4.2%
-14.60%
Great Financial Crisis Annual Return
8.6%
-0.3%
-5.66%
Positive Periods
68.3%
65.8%
63.3%

**S&P 500 backtest to 1972 and 60/40 backtest to 1970

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