GEM + Emerging Markets Dual Momentum

Details

The GEM + Emerging Markets Dual Momentum strategy is the same as the traditional GEM Dual Momentum but adds a fourth index to the mix: Emerging Markets.

This adds a more volatile market to the strategy with the expectation of greater returns.

Average Asset Allocation & Recommended ETFs

Weight
Ticker
ETF Name
Sector
43%
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
Equity, U.S., Large Cap
32%
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
21%
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Bond, U.S., All-Term
4%
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
Equity, Inter. Developed, Large Cap

Performance Metrics

All Data
Annual Return
12.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.72
10 Year Annual Return
5.6%
Volatility (annualized)
14.6%
Max Drawdown
-22.2%
Positive Periods
65.9%
Dot Com Annual Return
-1.4%
Great Financial Crisis Return
13.2%
Trade Frequency
Monthly
Ulcer Performance Index
1.2

Strategy Rules

This strategy holds one asset at a time.

  1. On the last trading day of the month, calculate the 12-month total return of SPY, EFA, EEM, and BIL (short-term US treasuries).
  2. If the 12-month total return of SPY > BIL:
    • Invest 100% in SPY if the 12-month return of SPY is greater than EFA and EEM
    • Invest 100% in EFA if the 12-month return of EFA is greater than SPY and EEM
    • Invest 100% in EEM if the 12-month return of EEM is greater than SPY and EFA
  3. If the 12-month total return of BIL > SPY, invest 100% in AGG.
  4. Hold the position until the last trading day of the next month.

How to Invest in the GEM + Emerging Markets Dual Momentum Portfolio

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GEM + Emerging Markets Dual Momentum Rolling Returns

Low
Average
High
1-Year
-20.4%
13.1%
60.8%
3-Year
-1.4%
12.3%
41.2%
5-Year
0.9%
12.0%
32.2%
10-Year
4.6%
12.6%
21.5%

Charts

Portfolio vs. 60/40 vs. S&P 500

All Data
Portfolio
60/40
S&P 500
Annual Return
12.1%
9.3%
10.3%
10Y Annual Return
5.6%
7.9%
12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.72
0.51
0.43
Max Drawdown
-22.2%
-29.7%
-50.97%
Volatility (annualized)
14.6%
9.9%
15.4%
Dot Com Annual Return
-1.4%
-4.2%
-14.60%
Great Financial Crisis Annual Return
13.2%
-0.3%
-5.66%
Positive Periods
65.9%
65.8%
63.3%

**S&P 500 backtest to 1972 and 60/40 backtest to 1970

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