Paired Switching by Lewis Glenn

Details

The Paired Switching strategy was developed by Lewis Glenn, a founding partner and Chief Scientific Officer of the private investment and wealth management firm Creative Solutions Associates LLC.

The strategy is outlined in his paper: Simple and Effective Market Timing with Tactical Asset Allocation.

On average, the strategy holds 55% in equities and 45% in bonds.

Average Asset Allocation & Recommended ETFs

Weight
Ticker
ETF Name
Sector
55%
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
Equity, U.S., Large Cap
45%
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Bond, U.S. Long-Term

Performance Metrics

All Data
Annual Return
10.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.52
10 Year Annual Return
7.4%
Volatility (annualized)
13.0%
Max Drawdown
-30.8%
Positive Periods
63.1%
Dot Com Annual Return
-4.4%
Great Financial Crisis Return
10.6%
Trade Frequency
Monthly
Ulcer Performance Index
0.9

Strategy Rules

This strategy trades once per month.

  1. On the last trading day of the month, calculate the 3-month return of the two assets above (SPY & TLT).
  2. Invest 100% of the portfolio in the asset with the highest 3-month return.
  3. Hold the position until the final trading day of the following month.

How to Invest in the Paired Switching Portfolio

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Paired Switching Rolling Returns

Low
Average
High
1-Year
-25.9%
12.1%
70.3%
3-Year
-4.8%
11.7%
34%
5-Year
0.9%
11.8%
27.5%
10-Year
3.2%
12.14%
18.6%

Charts

Portfolio vs. 60/40 vs. S&P 500

All Data
Portfolio
60/40
S&P 500
Annual Return
10.9%
9.3%
10.3%
10Y Annual Return
7.4%
7.9%
12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.52
0.51
0.43
Max Drawdown
-30.8%
-29.7%
-50.97%
Volatility (annualized)
13.0%
9.9%
15.4%
Dot Com Annual Return
-4.4%
-4.2%
-14.60%
Great Financial Crisis Annual Return
10.6%
-0.3%
-5.66%
Positive Periods
63.1%
65.8%
63.3%

**S&P 500 backtest to 1972 and 60/40 backtest to 1970

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