Three-Way Model by Ned Davis

Details

The Three-Way Model strategy was developed by Ned Davis of Ned Davis Research.

It uses three funds and the a simple moving average to determine when to invest and when to hold cash.

On average, the fund allocates 37% to equities, 32% to bonds, and 31% to gold and cash.

Average Asset Allocation & Recommended ETFs

Weight
Ticker
ETF Name
Sector
37%
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
Equity, U.S., Large Cap
32%
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Bond, U.S. Long-Term
28%
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
Commodity, Gold
3%
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term

Performance Metrics

All Data
Annual Return
11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.59
10 Year Annual Return
7.8%
Volatility (annualized)
11.9%
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Positive Periods
66.9%
Dot Com Annual Return
6.8%
Great Financial Crisis Return
9.5%
Trade Frequency
Monthly
Ulcer Performance Index
1.2

Strategy Rules

This strategy trades once per month.

  1. On the last trading day of the month, calculate both the 3-month and 10-month moving average for SPY, TLT, and GLD.
  2. Invest in the assets where the 3-month moving average will close above the 10-month
    • If one asset meets the criteria, invest 100% in that asset.
    • If two, invest 50% in each.
    • If three, invest equally in all three.
    • If no assets meet the criteria, invest 100% in cash (BIL)
  3. Hold positions until the last trading day of the next month.

How to Invest in the Three-Way Model Portfolio

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Three-Way Model Rolling Returns

Low
Average
High
1-Year
-24.9%
12.3%
67.5%
3-Year
-2.8%
11.6%
34.8%
5-Year
0.5%
11.4%
26.7%
10-Year
5.7%
11.5%
20.9%

Charts

Portfolio vs. 60/40 vs. S&P 500

All Data
Portfolio
60/40
S&P 500
Annual Return
11.5%
9.3%
10.3%
10Y Annual Return
7.8%
7.9%
12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.59
0.51
0.43
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
-29.7%
-50.97%
Volatility (annualized)
11.9%
9.9%
15.4%
Dot Com Annual Return
6.8%
-4.2%
-14.60%
Great Financial Crisis Annual Return
9.5%
-0.3%
-5.66%
Positive Periods
66.9%
65.8%
63.3%

**S&P 500 backtest to 1972 and 60/40 backtest to 1970

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